Guyana’s Black Gold Rush: Navigating Risks and Rewards in 2025

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On December 17, 2025, the Guyana Business Journal hosted a critical conversation between Dr. Terrence Blackman and Dr. Vincent Adams examining Guyana’s unprecedented transformation from one of the poorest nations in the Western Hemisphere to one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. With oil production reaching 900,000 barrels per day^[1] and the Natural Resource Fund standing at $3.64 billion^[2], the webinar addressed fundamental questions about governance, transparency, environmental protection, and intergenerational equity. Dr. Adams, who served as Executive Director of Guyana’s Environmental Protection Agency from 2018 to 2020^[3] and spent three decades at the United States Department of Energy, brought unparalleled technical expertise and insider knowledge to a discussion that revealed systemic challenges in contract terms, regulatory oversight, environmental safeguards, and the absence of transparent financial reporting.

The conversation underscored a central tension: while Guyana possesses extraordinary natural resource wealth—potentially exceeding the reported 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil—the nation risks squandering this blessing through inadequate governance, insufficient regulatory capacity, and unsustainable fiscal policies. Dr. Adams opened by challenging the widely cited figure of 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil reserves, noting this estimate dates to 2022 despite more than twenty discoveries since then. “I don’t believe it’s 11 billion—it’s much more than that,” he stated emphatically. Even using the conservative estimate, Guyana ranks as the 18th largest oil reserve holder globally, surpassing Mexico by a factor of two and exceeding the United Kingdom’s reserves.

Beyond oil, Guyana possesses advantages that oil-rich Middle Eastern nations lack: abundant freshwater, favorable weather, and a small population of approximately 836,000^[4]. “We have the potential to become by far the richest country on the planet,” Dr. Adams emphasized. “We have water, in contrast to the rich countries in the Middle East—all they have is sand and oil, and they’ve become rich. So why can’t we?” Yet Dr. Adams was quick to temper optimism with stark warnings. “You can have all the opportunities in the world, the only thing that matters is what you do with that opportunity? It’s all about how well you govern the oil industry.”

He invoked the cautionary tales of Nigeria and Venezuela, nations that squandered their oil wealth through corruption, mismanagement, and weak institutions. The central question, he argued, is not whether Guyana has been blessed with oil, but whether the nation has the wisdom, institutions, and political will to manage that blessing for the benefit of current and future generations. The answer to that question, based on Dr. Adams’ frank assessment, is deeply troubling.

The Governance Challenge

“The most important thing in terms of governance is proper oversight.”

Dr. Adams stated unequivocally. Drawing on his experience at the highest levels of U.S. government, he emphasized that effective regulators must possess equal or greater technical capacity than the companies they oversee. “I worked at the highest level of US government, and the one thing we made certain of was that we invested heavily in making certain that we had the same or more firepower than the contractors that we oversaw.” In contrast, Guyana’s Environmental Protection Agency currently lacks even a single employee with formal training in oil and gas operations. “There’s not a single person in the EPA right now who has even one hour of training in oil and gas,” Dr. Adams revealed. “It’s been over five, six years now.”

During his tenure as EPA Executive Director, Dr. Adams took decisive action to address this deficit. He secured $1 million from the World Bank to establish a petroleum unit within the EPA, staffed by a six-member team of highly qualified professionals with five to ten years of experience. This team was designed to be stationed on FPSO vessels around the clock to monitor operations in real time. He initiated a program to sponsor EPA employees for advanced training in petroleum engineering and environmental management, requiring five years of return service to the agency. He collaborated with the University of Guyana to establish a petroleum engineering department, expected to begin producing graduates by 2022. He arranged for Guyanese employees to attend ExxonMobil’s specialized training university in Houston. “All of that was scrapped,” Dr. Adams stated simply, after the change in government in 2020.

The dismantling of these capacity-building programs has left Guyana’s regulatory agencies ill-equipped to challenge the technical assertions of multinational oil companies, creating an asymmetry of power that favors corporate interests over national welfare. Dr. Adams highlighted a critical success factor from his EPA tenure: institutional independence. “The reason why I was so successful in transforming the EPA was because there was zero interference from the president. With all the controversies—we used to be shutting down operations, including Exxon—the president, nor Joe Harmon, nor nobody ever called me and interfered with what we were doing.” This independence has been systematically dismantled. The Department of Energy, which Dr. Adams and Dr. Mark Bynoe had established to provide specialized oversight of the energy sector, was immediately disbanded after the 2020 election.

The 2016 Production Sharing Agreement

The 14.5% Reality

One of the most contentious issues Dr. Adams addressed was the 2016 Production Sharing Agreement with ExxonMobil. He provided a detailed breakdown that contradicts public messaging about how oil revenues are shared. “For every 100 barrels of oil that comes up, 75 barrels go towards the cost of operations and the cost of paying back those loans and capital costs. That leaves 25 barrels to split 50-50 between Guyana and Exxon’s subsidiary—meaning we get 12.5%, they get 12.5%. Add the 2% royalty, and we’re at 14.5%.” Dr. Adams called ExxonMobil’s claim that Guyana receives 52% “propaganda and a falsehood. It’s an impossibility for us to ever get 52%.”

The situation is potentially far worse than the 14.5% figure suggests. The 75% allocated for costs is a ceiling, not a fixed amount. If actual costs exceed 75%, the difference carries over to subsequent months, accumulating indefinitely. “Let’s say it’s really 90% instead of 75%,” Dr. Adams explained. “That 15 extra goes over into the next month and the next month and the next month. That’s why I bet anybody we will never, throughout the life of this project, be able to get rid of these capital costs.” He compared it to credit card debt: “Every month you’re charging $1,000, but you’re only paying $100. That is one of the big elephants in the room that people are not paying attention to—that carry-over cost.”

With capital costs for the six current projects exceeding $60 billion and heading toward $100 billion, Guyanese citizens have no way to verify these calculations because quarterly financial reports are not published. When asked why these reports aren’t available, Dr. Adams recounted the Vice President’s response: “He said that the people of Guyana will not understand those reports, which is very insulting. He said it’s basically above our heads.” In contrast, U.S. government contracts require detailed amortization schedules, similar to mortgage statements, showing exactly when capital costs will be fully recovered.

Environmental Risks and Liability

Dr. Adams dedicated significant attention to liability coverage for oil spills, describing it as perhaps the most alarming governance failure. When Liza Phase 1 was approved before his arrival, the permit allowed ExxonMobil Guyana Limited, a subsidiary, to be “self-insured.” Dr. Adams questioned this arrangement: “Who is self-insured? It’s not Exxon. It’s Exxon’s subsidiary, which is EEPGL at the time. Who pays for an oil spill? They said, ‘Well, we’re already self-insured.’ I said, ‘Self-insurance? So where are your assets?’ Because this is a new company. They had not produced a barrel of oil, so they had no assets.”

The stakes are enormous. Dr. Adams noted that the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico cost British Petroleum over $65 billion^[5], with some estimates reaching $145 billion when including all direct and indirect costs^[6], in cleanup and compensation. “No insurance company will guarantee you for that kind of money,” he explained. “Which is what British Petroleum had to cover as the company. So I said, don’t bring me insurance. Even if you get $1 billion in insurance, I don’t care. What the language has to say is that Exxon, the parent company, has to cover all of the liability coverage above that insurance.”

The Natural Resource Fund Crisis

The Norway Model: Patience as Strategy

Dr. Adams expressed strong reservations about establishing the Natural Resource Fund at such an early stage of Guyana’s oil development. He drew a compelling comparison to Norway, often cited as the gold standard for sovereign wealth fund management. Norway discovered oil in 1969 but did not establish its sovereign wealth fund until 1990, twenty-one years later. The first deposit into the fund was made in 1996, twenty-seven years after the initial discovery. Norway did not make its first withdrawal until 2016^[7], a full forty-seven years after discovering oil. During those intervening decades, Norway invested oil revenues in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and social programs, building a foundation of prosperity before setting aside funds for future generations. Today, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund holds over $1.9 trillion^[8].

“Before that 27 years when they started putting money into the fund, they took care of the basic needs of the country,” Dr. Adams explained. “They took care of poverty, infrastructure, essential services before they started putting money in the fund.” According to a recent Inter-American Development Bank report, over 58% of Guyana’s population lives in poverty^[9]. Yet the government has withdrawn $1.8 billion from the NRF in 2025 alone, nearly 50% of the fund’s $3.64 billion balance. Norway’s fund allows withdrawals of no more than 3% annually^[10], ensuring that the principal grows over time and remains available for future generations. Guyana has no such limit.

The Urgency of Reform

Guyana stands at a crossroads between two starkly different futures. One path leads to the fate of Nigeria and Venezuela, nations that allowed corruption, mismanagement, and short-term thinking to transform resource wealth into a curse. The other path leads to the example of Norway, a nation that built enduring prosperity by investing in its people, maintaining fiscal discipline, and ensuring that oil revenues served the long-term interests of all citizens.

When today’s three-year-olds reach adulthood in 2040, what will they say about the decisions made in 2025? Will they inherit a prosperous, well-governed nation with world-class infrastructure, education, and healthcare? Or will they inherit a depleted fund, degraded environment, and a cautionary tale of squandered opportunity? The answer depends on whether Guyana’s leaders have the courage to prioritize national interests over political expediency, to build strong institutions over personal power, to invest in people over short-term consumption, to embrace transparency over convenient opacity, and to choose long-term vision over immediate gratification.

With oil production reaching 900,000 barrels per day, the Natural Resource Fund standing at $3.64 billion, and total 2025 oil revenues exceeding $2.2 billion, the scale of the opportunity is immense. Guyana ranks as the 18th largest oil reserve holder globally with more than twice Mexico’s reserves. The nation possesses abundant freshwater, favorable weather, and a small population with a median age of 26.2 years^[11], meaning half the population is under this age. But as Dr. Adams reminded us throughout the webinar, having the opportunity is not enough. What matters is what we do with that opportunity, and right now, the evidence suggests we are not doing nearly enough to protect it for those who will inherit the consequences of today’s choices.

About the Webinar

This report is based on the December 17, 2025 webinar “Transforming Guyana: New Voices, New Visions” presented by the Guyana Business Journal, hosted by Dr. Terrence Blackman, Professor and Chair of the Department of Mathematics at Medgar Evers College, CUNY, and Founder and Publisher of the Guyana Business Journal. Dr. Vincent Adams served as Executive Director of Guyana’s Environmental Protection Agency from 2018 to 2020 and spent 30 years at the United States Department of Energy. The conversation is available on YouTube and Facebook.

1. ExxonMobil Guyana Limited. (November 12, 2025). “Daily oil production hits 900,000 barrels in Guyana’s Stabroek block.” Retrieved from https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/locations/guyana/news-releases/11122025-daily-oil-production-hits-900000-barrels-in-guyanas-stabroek-block ↑
2. Guyana Business Journal. (December 2025). “From Prospect to Petrostate: Charting Guyana’s Decade of Oil.” Retrieved from https://guyanabusinessjournal.com/2025/12/from-prospect-to-petrostate-charting-guyanas-decade-of-oil/ ↑
3. As stated by Dr. Vincent Adams during the December 17, 2025 webinar. Dr. Adams clarified: “It wasn’t 2020 to 2021, it was from 2018 to 2020 when I was at the EPA.” ↑
4. Worldometer. (December 2025). “Guyana Population (2025).” Retrieved from https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/guyana-population/ (Population estimated at 835,986-838,180 as of mid-2025) ↑
5. BP Press Releases and Wikipedia. (2018). “Deepwater Horizon oil spill.” As of 2018, cleanup costs, charges and penalties had cost BP more than $65 billion. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill ↑
6. Chang, M. et al. (2018). “Ultimate Costs of the Disaster: Seven Years After the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.” Research paper documenting ultimate cost to BP of $144.89 billion when including hidden costs and indirect impacts not reported in BP’s income statement. ↑
7. Centre for Public Impact. (September 25, 2024). “The Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) in Norway.” Retrieved from https://www.centreforpublicimpact.org/case-study/government-pension-fund-global-gpfg-norway ↑
8. Government Pension Fund of Norway – Wikipedia. (December 2025). As of June 2025, Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global had over US$1.9 trillion in assets. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_Pension_Fund_of_Norway ↑
9. Inter-American Development Bank. (November 2024). “Ten Findings about Poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean.” The report estimates that 58% of Guyanese are living in poverty (earning less than US$6.85 per day), and 32% are in extreme poverty (earning less than US$3.65 per day). ↑
10. Pathfinders. (April 22, 2024). “Sovereign Wealth Fund: Norway.” Retrieved from https://www.sdg16.plus/policies/sovereign-wealth-fund-norway/ (Norway’s sovereign wealth fund limits withdrawals to 3 percent annually) ↑
11. Worldometer. (December 2025). “Guyana Demographics 2025.” The median age in Guyana is 26.2 years (2025). Retrieved from https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/guyana-demographics/ ↑

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Editor’s Note

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The Guyana Business Journal is committed to delivering thoughtful, data-driven insights on the most critical issues shaping Guyana’s future—from oil and gas to climate change, governance, and development. We invite you to support us if you value and believe in the importance of independent Guyanese-led analysis. Your contributions help us sustain rigorous research, expand access, and amplify the voices of informed individuals across the Caribbean and the diaspora.

The Guyana Business Journal Editorial Board welcomes reflections and submissions at terrence.blackman@guyanabusinessjournal.com.