Date: August 19, 2025
Subject: “Guyana Job Creation & Labour Market Outlook (2021–2030)” by Joel Bhagwandin
Assessment Type: GBJ Independent Fact-Check Analysis
Simulive_Presentation_Labour Market Achievements and outlook (2)
Executive Summary
This Guyana Business Journal comprehensive fact-check analysis examines the claims made in Joel Bhagwandin’s presentation about Guyana’s labour market performance between 2021 and 2025. The presentation asserts that over 70,000 sustainable jobs were created, surpassing the government’s target of 50,000 jobs. Through extensive research involving government sources, civil society analysis, international data, and independent verification, this report finds the claims to be partially credible but potentially misleading.
The core issue lies not in outright fabrication of data, but in the conflation of different types of employment activities, including training programs, part-time work, and job restoration, under the umbrella term of “job creation.” While the methodology employed is generally sound and uses legitimate data sources, the heavy reliance on extrapolation and the absence of independent verification raise questions about the precision of the claimed figures.
Background and Context
Guyana has experienced unprecedented economic growth since the discovery of oil, with GDP expanding by approximately 44% in 2024 alone. This economic boom has created significant expectations for job creation and labour market improvements. The People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) government, led by President Mohamed Irfaan Ali, committed to creating 50,000 new jobs in their 2020 manifesto, making employment generation a key political promise.
The presentation under review was created by Joel Bhagwandin, a finance executive and strategic advisor associated with SPHEREX Professional Services Inc., who is currently pursuing a PhD in Financial Management at Edinburgh Napier University (LinkedIn Profile, 2025). Bhagwandin’s analysis has been cited by official government sources, including the Department of Public Information, lending it significant political weight in ongoing debates about the government’s economic performance.
Methodology of Investigation
This fact-check employed a multi-source verification approach, examining government claims against civil society criticism, international data, and independent sources. The investigation involved accessing official government publications, opposition analyses, international organization reports, and various government ministry announcements to build a comprehensive picture of Guyana’s labour market performance.
Key sources included the Department of Public Information (DPI, 2025a, 2025b), Stabroek News (2025), Democracy Guyana (2025), analyses by civil society activists, International Labour Organization documents (ILO, 2025), and various government ministry announcements. The investigation also examined the credentials and methodology of the presentation’s author to assess the reliability of the analysis.
Detailed Findings and Analysis
The presentation’s central claim of creating over 70,000 sustainable jobs between 2021 and 2025 represents a significant assertion that requires scrutiny. The figure is derived through what Bhagwandin terms “evidence-based extrapolation,” using the 2021 Q3 Guyana Labour Force Survey as a baseline and incorporating data from the National Insurance Scheme, Bank of Guyana estimates, and sectoral performance indicators (Democracy Guyana, 2025).
The National Insurance Scheme data, which shows 67,905 new employee registrations between the ages of 16 and 59, provides the most concrete foundation for the employment claims. This administrative data is generally reliable, as NIS registration is mandatory for formal employment in Guyana. The close consistency between the presentation’s figure (67,905) and the government’s official statement (67,900) suggests this data point is accurate and represents genuine formal sector employment growth (DPI, 2025a).
However, the presentation’s sectoral breakdown reveals significant methodological concerns. The construction sector is credited with 30,000 jobs based on over 6,300 public contracts, using an assumption of five jobs per project. While the 180% growth in the construction sector appears to be supported by multiple sources, including social media posts (Sheriff Guyana Facebook, 2025; GNBS_GY Instagram, 2025) and government announcements, the job multiplier of approximately 4.7 jobs per contract lacks independent verification and may overestimate actual employment creation.
The housing sector claim of 25,000 jobs is linked to a 70% increase in residential mortgages from G$90 billion in 2020 to G$153 billion in 2024. This correlation is supported by President Ali’s recent announcement that 30,000 new homes will be built in the next five years, creating 150,000 jobs (DPI, 2025b). Using this ratio of five jobs per home, the construction of 5,000 homes would indeed generate approximately 25,000 jobs, lending credibility to this particular claim.
The agriculture sector presents the most problematic aspect of the job creation narrative. The presentation claims 75,572 persons benefited from training and capacity-building programs, but this figure conflates actual job creation with educational and training activities. The detailed breakdown includes 461 graduates equipped with agribusiness skills, 44,160 farmers trained in sustainable practices, 673 farmers certified for export production, 761 farmers trained in aquaculture, and 29,517 licenses processed by the fisheries department (Ministry of Agriculture, 2025). While these activities represent valuable human capital development, they do not necessarily constitute job creation in the traditional sense.
The tourism and hospitality sector’s contribution of 7,300 jobs appears more straightforward, supported by the addition of 60 new tourism products (DPI, 2025a). However, no independent verification of this figure was found during the investigation, making it difficult to assess its accuracy.
The transport sector calculation is based on approximately 20,000 new hire car and minibus registrations, with an assumption that 50% represent new drivers rather than vehicle replacements. This methodology yields 10,000 new drivers, plus an additional 11,000 truck drivers, totaling 21,000 transport sector jobs. While vehicle registration data is typically reliable, the 50% assumption lacks empirical support and may overestimate actual employment creation.
Civil Society Criticism and Alternative Analysis
The presentation’s claims have faced significant criticism from civil society activists, including Janette Bulkan, Andre Brandli, Alfred Bhulai, Kenrick Hunte, Darshanand Khusial, and Joe Persaud. Their analysis, published in Stabroek News (2025), employed World Bank country profile data and Bank of Guyana annual reports, using International Labour Organization models to estimate employment levels.
The civil society analysis concluded that employment may have increased by only 20,200 from 2020 to 2025, a figure dramatically lower than the government’s claims. Their methodology involved calculating the employed persons as the labour force multiplied by (100 minus the percentage unemployed) divided by 100, using ILO-based unemployment estimates. This approach yielded employment figures of 265,600 in 2020 and 268,800 in 2021, which reasonably matched Bureau of Statistics figures of 251,000 in 2020 and 264,900 in 2021 (Stabroek News, 2025).
The civil society critics identified 24,467 verifiable jobs from three specific government programs: 15,283 in the part-time Pathways project paying $40,000 per month, 2,700 Amerindian Community Support Officers, and 6,484 in the ENGAGE project. Crucially, they noted that none of these programs offers full-time employment, highlighting a fundamental definitional issue in the debate over job creation (Stabroek News, 2025).
The critics argued that the government is “doubling the verifiable data” and including part-time, discretionary employment in a manner that suggests governance “by the seat-of-its-pants” rather than evidence-based policy making. They called for more analytical and evidence-based government approaches, particularly given that 37% of the national budget comes from oil revenues (Stabroek News, 2025).
Government Response and Official Position
The government has consistently defended its job creation claims through official channels, particularly the Department of Public Information. A June 2025 DPI article confirmed that “more than 70,000 sustainable jobs have been created through well-crafted government investment and economic policies in various sectors, including education, infrastructure, housing, health, and tourism” (DPI, 2025a).
The official government position, as articulated through DPI, explicitly cites Joel Bhagwandin’s SphereX Market Insights and Analysis report as the source of these figures. This creates a circular reference problem, where the presentation being fact-checked is simultaneously the source of official government claims about job creation performance.
The government’s defense acknowledges limitations in the analysis, noting that the employment figures “do not fully account for expatriate and part-time workers” and that some sectors, like manufacturing and non-oil services, were excluded from the analysis.” The government also responds to “criticisms from overseas-based academics who questioned the employment figures” by highlighting “the limitations of outdated data and the need to consider more recent developments in the country” (DPI, 2025a).
President Ali’s recent housing sector announcements provide additional context for the government’s claims. His forecast of 30,000 new homes over the next five years, generating 150,000 jobs and injecting $450 billion into the economy, demonstrates the scale of the government’s development ambitions. The announcement that nearly 53,000 residential house lots and 5,000 commercial lots have been allocated over the past five years supports claims of significant activity in the housing sector (DPI, 2025b; Guyana Times, 2025).
Data Source Validation and Methodological Assessment
The presentation’s methodology relies on three primary data sources: the 2021 Q3 Guyana Labour Force Survey, Bank of Guyana labour force and population estimates, and National Insurance Scheme registration data. Each of these sources has different strengths and limitations that affect the overall credibility of the analysis.
The 2021 Q3 Guyana Labour Force Survey, conducted by the Bureau of Statistics, represents the most recent comprehensive labour market data available for Guyana. An International Labour Organization document confirms this survey as “the latest available labour force data” as of 2025, indicating that more recent comprehensive data is not available (ILO, 2025). This limitation necessitates the use of extrapolation techniques to estimate current employment levels, introducing uncertainty into the analysis.
The Bank of Guyana data provides macroeconomic context and population estimates that help validate the Labour Force Survey findings. According to the central bank’s data, this information is generally considered reliable for macroeconomic analysis. The presentation’s use of variance analysis between these two sources represents a reasonable approach to data triangulation (Democracy Guyana, 2025).
The National Insurance Scheme registration data offers the most concrete evidence of formal sector employment growth. With 67,905 new employee registrations between the ages of 16 and 59 from 2021 to 2025, this administrative data provides a solid foundation for employment claims. The NIS system’s mandatory nature for formal employment makes this data particularly valuable for tracking employment trends.
Joel Bhagwandin’s credentials as the analysis author include his role as a finance executive and strategic advisor at SPHEREX Professional Services Inc., in addition to his ongoing PhD studies in Financial Management at Edinburgh Napier University (LinkedIn Profile, 2025). These qualifications suggest relevant expertise in economic analysis and financial modeling, lending credibility to his methodological approach.
The presentation’s methodology demonstrates several strengths, including the use of multiple official data sources, transparency about limitations and assumptions, and the application of triangulation techniques to validate findings. The conservative approach of excluding manufacturing and informal sector jobs from the analysis suggests an attempt to avoid overestimation.
However, the methodology also reveals significant weaknesses. The heavy reliance on extrapolation from 3-year-old baseline data introduces substantial uncertainty. The use of assumed multipliers for sectoral job creation, such as five jobs per construction contract, lacks empirical validation. The conflation of training programs with actual job creation inflates the overall figures and misrepresents the nature of employment growth.
Economic Context and Plausibility Assessment
Guyana’s extraordinary economic growth provides an important context for evaluating job creation claims. With GDP expanding by approximately 44% in 2024 and the International Monetary Fund projecting average annual growth of 14% over the next five years, the country is experiencing unprecedented economic expansion driven by oil production and associated investments.
This economic boom creates conditions conducive to significant job creation across multiple sectors. The construction industry’s 180% growth between 2020 and 2024, while impressive, aligns with visible infrastructure development and housing expansion throughout the country (Sheriff Guyana Facebook, 2025). The decline in the unemployment rate from 14% in 2023 to 10.2% in 2024, as reported by Trading Economics, supports claims of improving labour market conditions.
The oil and gas sector’s contribution to employment, while not the primary focus of the presentation, provides additional context. ExxonMobil’s reported employment of 6,100 Guyanese workers, representing 70% of the local workforce in the sector, demonstrates significant direct employment creation. President Ali’s claims of over 6,500 new jobs in the oil and gas sector, with spin-off jobs representing more than half that amount, suggest broader economic multiplier effects.
The housing sector’s performance appears particularly robust, with President Ali’s announcement of $870 billion in housing-related investments over the next five years indicating massive planned expenditure (DPI, 2025b). The allocation of nearly 53,000 house lots over the past five years, combined with the 70% increase in residential mortgages, supports claims of significant housing sector activity and associated employment creation.
However, the scale of claimed job creation raises questions about labour market capacity and wage effects. Creating 70,000 new jobs in a country with a total population of approximately 800,000 represents a substantial increase in employment levels. If accurate, this would represent nearly a 9% increase in the total population’s employment status, a remarkable achievement that would typically be accompanied by significant wage pressures and skills shortages.
Comparative Analysis and International Context
Comparing Guyana’s claimed job creation performance with international benchmarks provides perspective on the plausibility of the figures. The assertion of creating 70,000 jobs over four years in a small economy represents an annual job creation rate of approximately 2.2% of the total population, a figure that would be considered exceptional by international standards.
Small island developing states and resource-rich economies provide the most relevant comparisons for Guyana’s experience. Countries experiencing oil booms typically see significant employment growth, but the magnitude of Guyana’s claimed performance exceeds most historical precedents when adjusted for population size.
The International Labour Organization’s broader Caribbean labour market analysis indicates that most regional economies struggled with employment creation during the post-COVID period (ILO, 2025). Guyana’s claimed performance stands out dramatically from regional trends, which typically showed employment stagnation or modest growth during 2021-2025.
The civil society critics’ estimate of 20,200 net job creation aligns more closely with typical post-recession recovery patterns and regional economic performance (Stabroek News, 2025). This figure represents approximately 2.5% of the total population over four years, or about 0.6% annually, which falls within normal ranges for developing economies experiencing moderate growth.
The discrepancy between government claims and civil society estimates highlights fundamental disagreements about employment measurement and definition. The government’s inclusion of training programs, part-time work, and job restoration inflates the figures significantly compared to traditional employment statistics that focus on full-time job creation.
Implications and Broader Significance
The debate over Guyana’s job creation performance extends beyond statistical accuracy to encompass broader questions about economic governance, political accountability, and development strategy. The government’s claims serve critical political functions, demonstrating progress on key electoral promises and justifying continued policy approaches.
However, the conflation of different types of employment activities under the “job creation” umbrella risks misleading the public’s understanding of actual labor market improvements. Training programs and capacity building, while valuable for human capital development, do not provide the immediate income generation and economic security that traditional employment offers.
The heavy reliance on extrapolation and assumed multipliers in the government’s analysis reflects broader challenges in collecting and analyzing economic data in developing countries. Limited statistical capacity and infrequent comprehensive surveys necessitate creative approaches to economic measurement, but these methods introduce significant uncertainty into policy evaluation.
The circular reference between the presentation and official government claims raises concerns about the independence of economic analysis and the potential for confirmation bias in policy evaluation (DPI, 2025a). When the same analysis serves as both the source of government claims and the basis for defending those claims, the credibility of the entire exercise becomes questionable.
The international attention focused on Guyana’s economic performance, driven by its oil discoveries and rapid growth, makes accurate employment data particularly important for attracting investment and managing development partnerships. Overstated employment claims could erode credibility with international partners and investors, who rely on accurate economic data for informed decision-making.
Limitations of This Analysis
This fact-check analysis faces several limitations that should be acknowledged. The absence of comprehensive, recent labour market data from official sources limits the ability to definitively verify employment claims. The Bureau of Statistics’ lack of updated unemployment and labour force statistics, as noted in the Stabroek News article (2025), creates an information vacuum that both government and critics attempt to fill through estimation and extrapolation.
Access to detailed administrative data from government agencies, including complete NIS registration records, sectoral employment statistics, and comprehensive program participation data, would significantly enhance the accuracy of this analysis. Although the reliance on publicly available information and media reports is extensive, it cannot substitute for access to primary government data sources.
The complexity of defining and measuring employment in developing economies, particularly regarding informal sector work, part-time employment, and subsistence activities, creates inherent challenges in employment analysis. Different stakeholders may legitimately employ different definitions and measurement approaches, resulting in varying conclusions about the same underlying economic phenomena.
The political sensitivity of employment data in Guyana, given its importance for government credibility and electoral prospects, may influence the availability and presentation of information from various sources. Both government and opposition sources have political incentives that may affect their analysis and presentation of employment data.
Recommendations
Based on this comprehensive GBJ fact-check analysis, the presentation’s claims about Guyana’s job creation performance are assessed as partially credible but potentially misleading. The core statistical claims are not fabricated, and the methodology employed demonstrates reasonable analytical approaches using legitimate data sources. However, the conflation of different types of employment activities and the heavy reliance on extrapolation create significant concerns about the accuracy and interpretation of the figures.
The most reliable evidence suggests that formal sector employment has indeed increased significantly, as demonstrated by the 67,905 new NIS registrations (DPI, 2025a). This administrative data provides concrete evidence of employment growth and represents the most credible element of the government’s claims. The housing and construction sector activity appears substantial and likely has generated significant employment, though the precise job multipliers used in the analysis lack independent verification.
The claims made by the agriculture sector are the most problematic, as they conflate training and capacity-building programs with actual job creation (Ministry of Agriculture, 2025). While these programs provide valuable human capital development, they should not be presented as a substitute for employment generation. This conflation significantly inflates the overall job creation figures and misrepresents the nature of labour market improvements.
The transport sector calculations, based on vehicle registration assumptions, represent reasonable estimates but lack empirical validation. The tourism sector claims, while specific, could not be independently verified through available sources.
The civil society criticism provides a valuable alternative perspective and highlights significant methodological concerns (Stabroek News, 2025). Their estimate of 20,200 net job creation, while significantly lower than government claims, may undercount informal sector employment and the full scope of government employment initiatives. The actual figure is likely to fall between the civil society estimate and the government’s claims, possibly within the range of 30,000 to 50,000 jobs when using consistent definitions and measurement approaches.
For future employment analysis and policy evaluation, several recommendations emerge from this investigation. Government statistical agencies should prioritize regular, comprehensive labour force surveys to provide current, reliable baseline data for policy analysis. Clear definitions and consistent measurement approaches should be established for employment statistics, distinguishing between full-time job creation, part-time employment, training programs, and capacity-building initiatives.
Independent verification of government employment claims through academic institutions, international organizations, or civil society groups would enhance credibility and public trust in economic data. Transparency in methodology, assumptions, and data sources should be maintained in all government economic analysis, with clear acknowledgment of limitations and uncertainties.
The broader lesson from this analysis concerns the importance of rigorous, independent economic analysis in democratic governance. While the presentation demonstrates competent analytical skills and uses legitimate data sources, its adoption as official government policy without independent verification raises concerns about the quality of economic policy evaluation in Guyana.
Ultimately, this fact-check reveals a complex situation where technical accuracy coexists with potential misrepresentation. The presentation’s claims are not entirely false, but their interpretation and presentation may mislead public understanding of Guyana’s actual labour market performance. This nuanced conclusion reflects the challenges inherent in fact-checking complex economic claims in data-limited environments, where the line between legitimate analysis and political advocacy can become blurred.
References
Democracy Guyana. (2025, August 18). Guyana’s Labour Market Expansion (2021-2025). Retrieved from https://democracyguyana.com/guyanas-labour-market-expansion-2021-2025/
Department of Public Information. (2025a, June 13). Government’s job creation efforts surpass target, expectations. Retrieved from https://dpi.gov.gy/governments-job-creation-efforts-surpass-target-expectations/
Department of Public Information. (2025b, August 14). President Ali forecasts 30,000 new homes to be built in next five years. Retrieved from https://dpi.gov.gy/president-ali-forecasts-30000-new-homes-to-be-built-in-next-five-years/
GNBS_GY Instagram. (2025, January 16). Empowering Guyanese Entrepreneurs! A 180% boost in grant support (2020-2024). Retrieved from https://www.instagram.com/gnbs_gy/p/DE46HkVzt3o/?hl=ml
Guyana Times. (2025, August 14). $870B investment to construct 30k homes, open up lands in next 5 years – President Ali. Retrieved from https://guyanatimesgy.com/870b-investment-to-construct-30k-homes-open-up-lands-in-next-5-years-pres-ali/
International Labour Organization. (2025, June). Guyana Decent Work Country Programme 2025-2030. Retrieved from https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/2025-06/Guyana%20DWCP%202025-30.pdf
LinkedIn Profile. (2025). Joel Bhagwandin – Finance Executive | Strategic Advisor | PhD student in Financial Management. Retrieved from https://gy.linkedin.com/in/joel-bhagwandin-57481470
Ministry of Agriculture, Guyana. (2025, January 13). Guyana Agri Investment Prospectus 2024. Retrieved from https://agriculture.gov.gy/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Guyana-Agri-Investment-Prospectus-2024.pdf
Sheriff Guyana Facebook. (2025, March 3). Construction sector growth statistics. Retrieved from https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1061490109120099&id=100057773602247&set=a.546759967259785
Stabroek News. (2025, August 18). Still no evidence from PPP/C that 50,000 jobs created. Retrieved from https://www.stabroeknews.com/2025/08/18/news/guyana/still-no-evidence-from-ppp-c-that-50000-jobs-created/
Guyana Business Journal
Aug 19, 2025
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