Beyond the Oil Boom

 

Guest Contribution · The Oil Economy

Beyond the Oil Boom

Measuring Guyana’s Progress by the Dignity of Its People

From the banned Corn Flakes of the 1980s to the US$7 latte of the boom: the true test of the oil era is not the industries named in speeches or the billions in the national accounts, but whether ordinary Guyanese can build secure, dignified, and prosperous lives within their own country.

By Kwasi Fraser · August 2026

Guyana had sugar, rice, bauxite, gold, timber, agriculture, manufacturing, and services long before the discovery of oil. Those sectors sustained the country through difficult periods and remain essential to its future.

But the existence of multiple industries did not, by itself, produce broad prosperity. It did not prevent widespread poverty, institutional weakness, unreliable public services, or the steady migration of generations of Guyanese seeking security and opportunity abroad.

That history deserves to be remembered honestly — not to diminish Guyana’s achievements, but to ensure that the mistakes of the past are not repeated under far more prosperous circumstances.

I. “Cone Flakes”

I remember Guyana in the 1980s, when Corn Flakes was banned and ordinary families had to improvise. We went to the cone factory and bought bags of broken and imperfect ice-cream-cone wafers. Those discarded pieces became our substitute breakfast cereal — our own “Cone Flakes.”

We can smile today at the ingenuity of it, but there was nothing prosperous about the experience. It reflected the resilience of families surviving scarcity in a country blessed with fertile land, valuable minerals, productive industries, and an educated population, yet unable to provide basic goods and consistent opportunity.

Our ability to transform broken wafers into “Cone Flakes” should be remembered as evidence of the resourcefulness of the Guyanese people — not as proof that the economy was working for them.

We should therefore be cautious about presenting Guyana’s pre-oil economy as a model of successful diversification merely because several sectors existed. A diversified economy should be judged not by the number of industries it contains, but by whether those industries generate productivity, rising incomes, reliable public services, social mobility, and reasons for citizens to remain.

II. What the Diaspora Tells Us

The Guyanese diaspora is a source of extraordinary pride. Guyanese doctors, teachers, engineers, entrepreneurs, tradespeople, and public servants have made important contributions across the world.

But the size of that diaspora also tells a more difficult story. For many families, migration was not simply an expression of ambition. It was a response to limited opportunity, economic instability, political division, and uncertainty about the future.

Oil now gives Guyana the chance not merely to preserve the economic structures of the past, but to correct the institutional, political, and social failures that made migration feel necessary rather than voluntary.

III. The Seven-Dollar Latte

Important progress is being made. Guyana is investing in roads, bridges, housing, education, healthcare, energy, and technology. These investments should be acknowledged; they can improve national competitiveness and quality of life for generations.

But their success must ultimately be measured against the daily experience of the people.

Today, supermarket shelves are fuller, luxury hotels are rising, international brands have arrived, and new businesses are opening. Yet in the capital of one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, a latte can cost nearly US$7, while many Guyanese families still find it difficult to afford dinner together at a restaurant in Georgetown.

Yesterday, scarcity placed Corn Flakes beyond our reach. Today, rising prices and unequal access risk placing the US$7 latte — and even the family restaurant table — beyond the reach of many. The symbols have changed, but the fundamental policy question remains: who is participating in the prosperity being created?

Development cannot be measured only by occupied hotel rooms, vehicle imports, multinational investment, or construction activity. Those are signs of economic expansion, but they do not tell us how widely the benefits are shared.

“When the symbols of wealth grow increasingly visible while large numbers of citizens struggle to participate, growth risks becoming a spectacle observed by the poor rather than prosperity experienced by them.” — K.F.

IV. The Real Test

The true test of the oil era will not be how many industries appear in a speech, how many billions are recorded in the national accounts, or how many bridges and buildings are inaugurated.

The test will be whether Guyanese citizens can afford food, housing, electricity, transportation, healthcare, education, and an occasional family meal without persistent anxiety.

It will be whether a teacher, nurse, police officer, farmer, tradesperson, small-business owner, or public servant can participate meaningfully in the economy being built around them.

And it will be whether the children of those serving the US$7 latte can aspire to own the business, manage the hotel, design the infrastructure, finance the enterprise, or lead the institution — not merely serve at the edges of an economy controlled by others.

“The measure of national development is not whether the affluent can purchase a US$7 latte. It is whether the working family serving it can also afford to sit at the table.” — K.F.

V. A Modern Dutch Disease

Guyana must also remain alert to a modern form of the Dutch disease: an economy in which oil revenues raise prices, land values, wages, imports, and expectations while making agriculture, manufacturing, and other productive sectors less competitive.

The danger is not only dependence on oil exports. It is the possibility that national wealth rises while ordinary citizens feel increasingly excluded from their own economy. A country can appear richer while many of its people feel poorer. It can produce more oil while importing more food, labor, and expertise — and it can speak confidently of diversification while nominally non-oil sectors grow ever more dependent on petroleum revenues, public contracts, and oil-driven consumption.

Avoiding that outcome will require more than ambition. It will require strong institutions, transparent procurement, reliable data, disciplined investment, competitive domestic industries, independent oversight, and a sustained commitment to ensuring that opportunity is not concentrated among the well-connected.

VI. Measuring What Matters

Guyana will have avoided the resource curse when oil wealth builds institutions stronger than political personalities, industries capable of thriving beyond government spending, and communities in which citizens can see a secure future for themselves and their children. It will be evident, too, when Guyanese abroad can view returning home as an opportunity for progress rather than a personal or financial sacrifice.

This is not an argument against Guyana’s development. It is an appeal to measure development by the dignity, security, ownership, and opportunity experienced by the people in whose name progress is being pursued.

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The people who once transformed broken cone wafers into “Cone Flakes” have already demonstrated their resilience.

The responsibility of leadership in the oil era is to ensure that future generations are remembered
not merely for how well they endured scarcity, but for how fully they participated in the prosperity their country created.

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