Counting Power: How Guyana Divides Seats in Parliament—and Why the Math Matters
By Terrence Richard Blackman, Ph.D. & Rennie Parris, MBA
For the Guyana Business Journal
The rumblings have begun, and the political landscape just shifted dramatically. President Irfaan Ali’s announcement of September 1, 2025 as election day has set off a familiar cycle of political maneuvering, but this time with a crucial twist: the Alliance For Change (AFC) has officially confirmed it will contest the elections independently, ending coalition talks with A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) after negotiations “stalled over the selection of a presidential candidate”.
This split—with the PNCR insisting on leader Aubrey Norton while the AFC maintained its opposition to Norton leading the ticket—fundamentally changes the electoral mathematics. Critics called Ali’s timing inappropriate, using Independence Day celebrations to announce partisan election dates. There are allegations of intimidation campaigns aimed at reducing the contest to just two parties, while opposition parties question GECOM’s readiness to manage credible elections.
Against this backdrop of political tension and unprecedented oil wealth transforming the country, understanding how Guyana’s electoral system actually works has never been more important. When voters cast their ballots in September, they’ll be participating in a sophisticated mathematical process that determines not just who wins, but by how much—and in an oil-rich Guyana where every seat matters, those calculations could shape the nation’s future.
The Basics
Guyana’s National Assembly has 65 seats, filled through a unique dual system:
- 40 seats come from a national list representing the whole country
- 25 seats come from 10 geographic regions (your local area)
When you vote, you actually cast two votes at the same time—one vote for your regional representative and one vote for the national list—though both are typically for the same party.
How the 25 Regional Seats Work
The regional seats are distributed among Guyana’s 10 administrative regions based on registered voter population, as established by the Representation of the People Act:
- Region 1 (Barima-Waini): 2 seats
- Region 2 (Pomeroon-Supenaam): 2 seats
- Region 3 (Essequibo Islands-West Demerara): 3 seats
- Region 4 (Demerara-Mahaica): 7 seats
- Region 5 (Mahaica-Berbice): 2 seats
- Region 6 (East Berbice-Corentyne): 3 seats
- Region 7 (Cuyuni-Mazaruni): 2 seats
- Region 8 (Potaro-Siparuni): 1 seat
- Region 9 (Upper Takutu-Upper Essequibo): 1 seat
- Region 10 (Upper Demerara-Upper Berbice): 2 seats
Legal Requirements: To qualify for elections, parties must contest in at least 6 of the 10 regions and compete for at least 13 of the 25 regional seats. This ensures that only serious, nationally oriented parties can participate.
The Math Made Simple: The Hare Quota
Here’s where the mathematics comes in, but it’s straightforward. Guyana uses the “Hare Quota”—named after Thomas Hare, an English reformer from the 1800s who advocated for fairer elections.
The formula: Hare Quota = Total Valid Votes ÷ Number of Seats
Think of it as determining how many votes you need to “buy” one seat in Parliament.
This same formula is applied separately to both your regional vote and your national vote. Within each region, votes are counted separately using this mathematical formula. Your regional vote competes only within your region, while your national vote joins the country-wide pool. For example, in 2020, Region 4 required 28,868 votes per seat (202,077 total votes ÷ 7 seats), while Region 8 required just 4,665 votes per seat (4,665 total votes ÷ 1 seat).
How It Works: The 2020 Election Example
Let’s use the controversial 2020 election to see this system in action. After months of recounts and legal battles, here were the final numbers:
- Total valid votes: 460,352
- Total seats: 65
- Hare Quota: 460,352 ÷ 65 = 7,082 votes per seat
Step 1: Initial Seat Allocation
People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C):
- 233,336 votes ÷ 7,082 = 32.94 quotas
- Initial seats: 32 (the whole number)
- Remainder: 0.94 (or 6,653 leftover votes)
APNU+AFC Coalition:
- 217,920 votes ÷ 7,082 = 30.77 quotas
- Initial seats: 30
- Remainder: 0.77 (or 5,454 leftover votes)
Smaller Parties (LJP/ANUG/TNM joint list):
- 5,214 votes ÷ 7,082 = 0.74 quotas
- Initial seats: 0
- Remainder: 0.74 (or 5,214 leftover votes)
Step 2: Remainder Allocation
After distributing 62 seats (32 + 30 + 0), three seats remained. These go to parties with the largest remainders:
- PPP/C gets 1 more seat (remainder: 6,653 votes)
- APNU+AFC gets 1 more seat (remainder: 5,454 votes)
- Smaller parties get 1 seat (remainder: 5,214 votes)
Final result: PPP/C 33 seats, APNU+AFC 31 seats, Others 1 seat.
How Regional vs National Seats Worked
The 2020 results reveal how the dual system operates in practice:
- APNU+AFC: Won 13 regional seats + 18 national “top-up” seats = 31 total
- PPP/C: Won 12 regional seats + 21 national “top-up” seats = 33 total
- Small parties: Won 0 regional seats + 1 national seat = 1 total
Remarkably, APNU+AFC actually won more regional seats (13 vs 12), but PPP/C’s stronger national vote share earned them more “top-up” seats, securing their parliamentary majority. This demonstrates why both regional campaigning and national vote totals matter—you need both to maximize your seat count.
Why This System Matters
This proportional system ensures that if your party gets about 10% of the votes nationally, they should get about 10% of the seats (roughly 6-7 seats). It’s designed to be fair to both large and small parties.
But the system has quirks. In tight races, remainder votes can determine who controls Parliament. In 2020, PPP/C’s extra 1,199 remainder votes over APNU+AFC gave them the crucial 33rd seat—and parliamentary control.
The “Alabama Paradox” and Other Mathematical Oddities
Political scientists have discovered strange phenomena in quota-based systems. The “Alabama Paradox” shows that increasing the total number of seats can paradoxically reduce a party’s seat count—something that happened during 19th-century U.S. congressional apportionments.
Another quirk: in rare cases, a party might gain votes but end up with the same number of seats, depending on how other parties’ vote shares shift.
The 2025 Electoral Game-Changer
With the AFC now running independently from APNU, this dual system becomes critically important. The split opposition will compete separately in each region, potentially allowing PPP/C to win regional seats they couldn’t capture against a unified opposition bloc.
Consider Region 4 (Georgetown area): In 2020, the unified APNU+AFC won 116,941 votes (57.87%) and captured 4 of Region 4’s seven seats, while PPP/C got 80,920 votes (40.04%) and won 3 seats. But if APNU and AFC split roughly evenly in 2025—say 58,000 votes each—PPP/C could potentially win more seats despite getting similar vote totals, simply because the opposition vote would be divided.
In regions where APNU and AFC previously shared strong support, their separate campaigns could split the anti-PPP vote, making it easier for PPP/C to reach the regional quota for seats. This mathematical reality explains why coalition negotiations were so intense—and why their breakdown could dramatically reshape Parliament’s composition in September.
What This Means for Voters
Understanding this system helps explain why:
- Small parties can still get representation through remainder allocation
- Regional campaigning matters just as much as national campaigns, since you’re casting separate votes for each
- In close elections, every single vote truly counts
- Coalition governments become more likely when no single party dominates
- Geographic vote distribution can be as important as total vote share
Looking Ahead to September
As Guyana enters the oil era, this mathematical system will continue to determine how power is shared. The 2020 election demonstrated how a difference of just a few thousand votes out of nearly half a million cast can determine who leads the country. The regional breakdown revealed clear geographic patterns: PPP/C dominated coastal regions (Regions 2, 3, 5, and 6), while APNU+AFC controlled interior regions (Regions 7, 8, and 10), with Region 4 serving as the crucial battleground.
The next time you vote, remember: your ballot isn’t just a preference—it’s a number in a calculation that will determine Guyana’s future direction. In September 2025, with opposition parties split for the first time since 2011, every regional calculation will matter more than ever.
Bottom Line: Guyana’s election system utilizes mathematics to ensure that Parliament roughly reflects the people’s votes. In 2020, PPP/C’s 233,336 votes (50.7%) translated to 33 seats (50.8%)—a nearly perfect match. But the system’s regional component adds complexity: PPP/C actually won fewer regional seats (12) than APNU+AFC (13), yet their stronger national performance earned them more “top-up” seats. The system isn’t perfect, but it’s designed to give every vote weight and every party a fair shot at representation. However, the split opposition in September 2025 will test that principle like never before.
Dr. Terrence Richard Blackman is a mathematician and academic chair at Medgar Evers College, CUNY, and the founder of the Guyana Business Journal. Rennie Parris, MBA, is a Guyanese economist and business strategist with expertise in trade policy, economic development, and regional competitiveness. He holds an MBA in Finance from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and has served in advisory roles in both the private and public sectors. Parris regularly contributes to the Guyana Business Journal, where he writes on trade, investment, and economic policy issues impacting Guyana and the wider Caribbean.
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