The Impact of a Trump or Harris Administration on Guyana

The leadership of either a Trump or Harris administration in the United States would present starkly different paths for Guyana, a country with growing geopolitical significance due to its expanding oil industry. The potential impacts of their respective administrations can be understood through several key lenses: economic relations, climate change, human rights, immigration, and security. However, in the context of climate change, the next U.S. president will inherit the most ambitious climate policies in American history, which could have substantial implications for Guyana’s development trajectory.

Economic Relations

A Trump administration would likely continue to emphasize an “America First” approach, focusing on bilateral trade deals that prioritize U.S. interests. For Guyana, this could mean stricter trade terms, particularly concerning its oil exports. Trump’s administration has been known to take a more transactional approach, meaning Guyana’s access to the U.S. market could come with conditions that benefit American energy companies and workers. In contrast, Kamala Harris would likely take a more multilateral and cooperative approach to economic ties. Harris’ administration could strengthen economic relations by supporting sustainable development projects in Guyana, particularly through infrastructure development and climate-resilient industries, while still engaging with Guyana’s growing oil sector.

Climate Change

Climate policy is a critical area of divergence between the two administrations, with profound implications for Guyana. Under Joe Biden, a trio of laws—the CHIPS and Science Act, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and especially the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)—have established a sweeping industrial policy aimed at decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Goldman Sachs estimates that the IRA alone could generate over $3 trillion in public and private investment in clean technologies by 2030. However, Biden has also presided over a significant fossil-fuel boom, encouraging hydrocarbon production to offset disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine and the Middle East, making the U.S. the world’s largest oil and gas exporter.

Kamala Harris, who cast the deciding vote for the IRA, has raised hopes among environmentalists because of her track record on climate issues. As California’s attorney-general, she sued energy companies over pipeline leaks and offshore oil development. During her 2019 presidential campaign, Harris supported a ban on shale fracking and endorsed the Green New Deal. Some environmentalists even hope that, if elected president, she might declare a national “climate emergency” to accelerate ambitious climate action beyond what Biden has accomplished. This could lead to greater international pressure on Guyana to shift its focus away from oil and toward renewable energy, with financial incentives for green projects. However, this would likely involve heightened scrutiny of Guyana’s oil sector, posing challenges to its economic growth.

In contrast, a re-elected Donald Trump would almost certainly try to dismantle Biden’s clean-energy policies. Trump’s first term was marked by a rollback of environmental regulations, and his administration consistently downplayed the threat of climate change. Should he succeed in reversing Biden’s climate agenda, Guyana could benefit in the short term from reduced international pressure on environmental standards. This might allow Guyana to accelerate oil exploration and extraction without the immediate constraints of global climate agreements. However, the long-term impact of such a reversal could leave Guyana vulnerable to future economic and environmental shocks as global markets shift toward clean energy.

Human Rights and Governance

Trump’s foreign policy has often been transactional, with less emphasis on promoting human rights and democratic governance unless directly tied to U.S. interests. Under his administration, Guyana might face less pressure on governance and transparency issues, allowing its government more autonomy but potentially stalling progress on anti-corruption reforms and civil society development. Harris, in contrast, is likely to place a stronger emphasis on democratic governance, human rights, and anti-corruption initiatives. Her administration could increase support for civil society organizations and advocate for greater transparency and rule of law, fostering long-term political stability in Guyana, though this may come with more oversight and conditional aid.

Immigration

Trump’s strict immigration policies would likely continue under a second term, affecting Guyanese nationals seeking better opportunities in the U.S. through legal migration. This could reduce opportunities for Guyanese families and professionals to immigrate, potentially limiting remittances, which are an important part of Guyana’s economy. Conversely, Kamala Harris has advocated for comprehensive immigration reform. Under her administration, Guyanese nationals may see expanded pathways for legal migration, providing more opportunities for skilled professionals and families. This could enhance people-to-people ties between the U.S. and Guyana, contributing to a stronger bilateral relationship.

Security and Defense

Under Trump, the U.S. might prioritize military cooperation with Guyana, especially as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence in the region. Increased U.S. involvement in Guyana’s defense could manifest in security partnerships or arms deals, aligning Guyana more closely with U.S. strategic interests. Harris, while also likely cautious of Chinese influence, would probably favor a diplomatic and economic approach over military engagement. She would focus on regional stability through cooperation and diplomacy, building stronger relationships across the Caribbean without a heavy emphasis on military involvement, and fostering a more stable and cooperative regional environment.

The impact of a Trump or Harris administration on Guyana would vary significantly. A Trump administration would likely emphasize short-term economic gains and security concerns, potentially benefiting Guyana’s oil industry but offering less support for long-term sustainability and human rights. His rollback of Biden’s climate policies could remove some of the immediate environmental constraints on Guyana’s oil sector, but this could leave Guyana vulnerable in a global economy increasingly shifting toward renewable energy. In contrast, a Harris administration could take a more balanced approach, prioritizing sustainable development, environmental protection, human rights, and multilateral engagement. With her track record of supporting ambitious climate policies, Harris might push even further than Biden, which could lead to new opportunities for renewable energy development in Guyana, but also impose stricter environmental standards on its oil industry. Ultimately, the trajectory of U.S.-Guyana relations will depend heavily on the direction of U.S. leadership, with each administration presenting both challenges and opportunities for the nation.